Elena Rybakina has eyes on a bigger prize than the Indian Wells final against Aryna Sabalenka

World No 3 Rybakina is the reigning WTA Finals and Australian Open champion, and will look to lift her second Indian Wells title later on Sunday, with the Kazakh facing world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the final.

Rybakina beat Sabalenka to lift the Indian Wells title back in 2023, and also defeated the world No 1 in both the WTA Finals final last November and the Australian Open final back in January.

However, regardless of how she fares on Sunday afternoon, the 26-year-old is guaranteed to reach a new career-high of world No 2 in the WTA Rankings on Monday.

Rybakina's run to the final, coupled with a quarter-final exit for world No 2 Iga Swiatek, means that she is already ahead of the Pole in the WTA Live Rankings, and could hold a significant points lead over the six-time Grand Slam champion should she lift the title.

Come Monday, the only women ahead of Rybakina in the WTA Rankings will be four-time Grand Slam singles champion Sabalenka, who will be marking an impressive 82nd week atop the rankings.

Sabalenka has remained unchallenged at the top since regaining the world No 1 ranking from Swiatek back in October 2024, after initially spending eight weeks at the top in 2023.

Rybakina cannot challenge Sabalenka's status in Indian Wells, though when speaking after her semi-final win against Elina Svitolina, the two-time major winner admitted it was a significant target.

She said: "She [Sabalenka] showed great tennis for the past couple of years, so of course my goal is to get even higher in the ranking, to get this position as No 1, but I know it's still a lot of work. It all depends on the other players too.

"Yeah, definitely that's my biggest goal, next goal. So, yeah, I will try to do it this year, and hopefully it happens."

Sabalenka will still hold a 2,542-point lead over Rybakina even if she loses the final in Indian Wells, and will have a 3,242-point lead over the Kazakh if she prevails to lift the title.

Either way, the odds will still be in the world No 1's favour for some time - though Rybakina will have opportunities to catch up.

In the coming months, Sabalenka has 1,000 points to defend as both the Miami Open and Madrid Open champion, while she has significant Grand Slam points to defend across the rest of the year.

The Belarusian has 1,300 French Open final points, 780 Wimbledon semi-final points, and 2,000 US Open champion points across the rest of the season to her name.

In contrast, Rybakina has only 240 round-four points to defend at both the French Open and US Open, and just 130 round-three points at Wimbledon.

Considering her start to 2026, there is a sense that Rybakina could better those results at all three remaining Slams this year, applying pressure on Sabalenka.

Rybakina will have 500 Strasbourg International points to defend in May, but will then not have any significant points to defend until the Asian swing.

She will certainly have the chance to gain ground in the next few months, though it would be unwise to ignore Sabalenka's supreme consistency at the top.

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