Springboks put World No 1 ranking on the line against Wales in Durban

The final round of the southern hemisphere leg of the Nations Championship could reshape the top 10, with every match carrying significant ranking implications.

Because the Boks are playing 12th-ranked Wales in Durban this weekend, they cannot improve their rating with a victory regardless of the scoreline, due to the 17.58-point differential between the teams.

By the same token, if South Africa lose to the lowest-ranked team in the Nations Championship, they could surrender top spot depending on the result at Eden Park in Auckland.

A loss of any kind, paired with an All Blacks victory of more than 15 points over Ireland, would see New Zealand return to the summit.

As for Ireland, they will climb above New Zealand into second if they end the All Blacks' 52-match unbeaten run at Eden Park. Andy Farrell's men can leapfrog New Zealand and South Africa, returning to top spot for the first time since November 2024, but they will need to win by more than 15 points with South Africa also losing by the same margin in Durban.

The All Blacks can still reduce the gap between the teams to as little as 1.68 rating points in victory. Meanwhile, France are unable to improve their rating with victory over 11th-ranked Japan due to the 11.01-point differential between the teams.

However, Les Bleus will drop two places to sixth if they lose by more than 15 points and Argentina and Scotland beat England and Fiji respectively. France will lose fourth place with a smaller margin of defeat if England beat Los Pumas.

Eddie Jones' Japan can return to the top 10 for the first time since July 2023 if they avoid defeat and Italy lose to Australia in Perth. The Brave Blossoms can go as high as ninth if they beat France and both Fiji and Italy lose.

The Wallabies could fall to a new low in Joe Schmidt's final game as head coach if they lose by more than 15 points to Italy. If that occurs, Australia will drop out of the top 10 for the first time since the World Rugby Men's Rankings were introduced in October 2003.

That margin alone would not be enough for this to happen, but it would require Fiji to beat Scotland and Japan or Wales to upset France or South Africa, respectively. The Wallabies will drop below a victorious Fiji if beaten by the Azzurri.

Current World Rugby Rankings

1 South Africa 93.96

2 New Zealand 91.04

3 Ireland 89.32

4 France 87.43

5 England 84.75

6 Scotland 84.09

7 Argentina 84.06

8 Australia 80.60

9 Fiji 78.69

10 Italy 77.31

11 Japan 76.42

12 Wales 76.38 

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